Update on the Transmission Dynamics of the H1N1 pandemic

Researchers from the MRC Centre have contributed to a recent publication in WHO’s weekly epidemiologic record. Follow the link below to this publication describing the transmission dynamics of the pandemic (http://www.who.int/wer/2009/wer8446.pdf).

While you’re at it, check out an earlier publication of the WER by the WHO informal mathematical modelling network for pandemic influenza (lead by researchers at the MRC Centre), which provides a summary of the network’s activities (http://www.who.int/wer/2009/wer8434.pdf).

Contributed by: Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove (MRC Outbreak Centre WHO liaison)

New York Doctor Raps about H1N1 Prevention

Earlier this summer, the US Health and Human Services Secretary, Kathleen Sebelius, challenged Americans to come up with short videos on the subject of good hygiene and prevention of the H1N1 flu virus.

The winner, New York doctor (and amateur rap artist) John Clarke, was presented $2500 and will star in a national ad campaign for H1N1 prevention.

Click here to see Dr. John's video and those of a few runners up.
http://www.flu.gov/psa/contest/2009/index.html

I think 'Bagman' is my favourite.

A New Way to Access the Latest Flu Research - Plug In!

In a new venture, the Public Library of Science (or PLoS) has started a feature called 'PLoS Currents'. A clever play on both the flow of information and it's immediate relevance, 'Currents' allows researchers to post their most recent work on-line thereby stimulating scientific discourse as well as disseminating potentially useful information to both scientists and interested members of the general public.
The 'Currents' are moderated by a panel of experts from the relevant field to ensure the integrity of the work and general decorum in the resulting discussion.
In the first issue of 'PLoS Currents - Influenza', centre researchers led by Dr. Francois Balloux report their findings on the spatiotemporal dynamics evidenced in the early stages of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic.

Follow this link to check it out:
http://knol.google.com/k/thibaut-jombart/spatiotemporal-dynamics-in-the-early/11igg07td5uji/1?collectionId=28qm4w0q65e4w.1&position=1#

Imperial College Researchers Weigh In on Swine Flu

Follow the link below to see a great resource for following Imperial College researchers, many from the MRC Outbreak Centre, as they contribute their knowledge of and research on the A(H1N1) pandemic.

http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/media/influenza

Move over swine flu...

...The Zombies are coming!!

Follow the links below to learn how Centre Director, Prof. Neil Ferguson came to comment on the relationship between Infectious Disease modelling and a Zombie attack!!

The Times:

http://timesonline.typepad.com/science/2009/08/when-zombies-attack-science-meets-shaun-of-the-dead.html

BBC Radio 4, Today Programme

http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8206000/8206612.stm

Let it not be said that we're always serious!

watchful waiting

Apologies for the lack of updates recently. My thinking was that it made little sense to keep reporting increasing case numbers when they may or may not accurately illustrate the true picture of A(H1N1) spread but this caught my eye today and seemed worthy of a mention.

In Argentina there are 60 deaths in 2485 cases (34 deaths and 898 cases reported since friday 3 July) and in Chile there are 14 deaths in 7376 cases.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_07_06/en/index.html

There are lots of reasons why this could be, remember it's winter in the Southern Hemisphere and there will be other respiratory pathogens co-circulating. Also, at this point I am unaware of how the cases are identified and processed.

However, this is something to watch for sure...

WHO Moves to Pandemic Alert Level 6

Following a meeting of the WHO Emergency Committee this morning, the decision was taken to raise the Pandemic Alert level to level 6 for the first time in 41 years.

Director General, Margaret Chan, explained that Influenza A(H1N1) is significantly different from seasonal flu in that it preferentially infects people with a mean age <25 years. Two percent of cases result in severe illness and a progression to pneumonia. These cases tend to be adults between 30-50 years of age. One-third to one-half of cases occur in previously healthy people though, some underlying health conditions do present additional risk (e.g. respiratory diseases, cardiovascular disease, autoimmune disorders, diabetes and obesity).

Dr. Chan said the move to level 6 does not indicate an increase in severity, but rather reflects sustained transmission (not simply due to travel related cases) globally and the need for countries to activate their pandemic plans. She cautioned that we need to be vigilant in tracking the virus in the developing world where differences in surveillance, underlying health conditions and available medical care may mean the virus will take a trajectory different to that we have witnessed thus far. At this time, the WHO is not recommending any travel restrictions or border closures.

A link to Dr. Chan's statement: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_pandemic_phase6_20090611/en/index.html

With 25 new cases confirmed today, the UK case count now totals 822. England - 502, Scotland - 311, Northern Ireland - 7, Wales - 2