Artesunate Resistant Malaria in Cambodia

Malaria parasites in patients from a small village in western Cambodia are responding more slowly than usual to treatment with Artesunate. Indeed, some patients (33-50% in one clinical trial) still have circulating parasites 4-5 days post treatment when clearance normally occurs in 2-3 days.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8072742.stm

Listen here to a report this morning on the BBC radio 4 'Today' programme.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8073000/8073222.stm
Prof Brian Greenwood from the LSHTM provides commentary after the report.

Swine Flu Closes Eton!

In addition to an increase in the number of confirmed cases in the Birmingham school cluster (Handsworth) to 64, Eton College has taken the decision to remain closed for an additional week beyond the half-term break after a student was diagnosed with A(H1N1).
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8072679.stm

The UK case total now stands at 203
http://www.hpa.org.uk/webw/HPAweb&HPAwebStandard/HPAweb_C/1243467936876?p=1231252394302

A(H1N1) is also now spreading in the Philippines with 10 confirmed cases. These cases include a cluster of individuals who attended a wedding in Zambales last weekend.
http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=472370&publicationSubCategoryId=63

Worldwide, there have been 95 deaths and an estimated 13,450 cases.

GOOD NEWS:
The good news is that the development of an A(H1N1) vaccine is moving forward. Researchers at the NIBSC have successfully produced a hybrid virus (cross between a disease causing H1N1 strain and a tested lab strain) that will hopefully produce a protective immune reponse in vaccinees without causing disease. This is a crucial step in the production of a safe and effective vaccine.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8071758.stm

Update: 44 Cases in Birmingham Primary School

Influenza A(H1N1) work continues apace here in the Centre with staff working collaboratively at the WHO, CDC and HPA.
The HPA have just reported a cluster of 44 cases in a Birmingham primary school, bringing the current UK case count to 184.

Here are some links to the latest reports:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8068054.stm
http://www.hpa.org.uk/webw/HPAweb&Page&HPAwebAutoListName/Page/1240732817665?p=1240732817665
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_26/en/index.html

Science Paper!

As part of the 'WHO Rapid Pandemic Assessment Collaboration', members of the MRC Outbreak Centre have published a paper entitled, 'Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings'. The paper was published on-line yesterday via Science Express.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1176062v1

Not surprisingly, there has been a great deal of interest from the Press.
Here are some links:

http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/newsandeventspggrp/imperialcollege/newssummary/news_12-5-2009-11-1-24?newsid=66374

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8045364.stm

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17109-first-analysis-of-swine-flu-spread-supports-pandemic-plan.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/may/12/swine-flu-report-pandemic-predicted

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8044299.stm

Radio:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/default.stm (interview with Prof. Neil Ferguson begins 1hr 13min in)

Crunching Numbers

Morning all!
Here are some numbers for today...

Mexico - 1112 confirmed cases, 42 deaths
US - 642 confirmed cases, 2 deaths, in 41 states,
UK - 32 confirmed cases, 390 under laboratory investigation, 5 schools closed

The US Health and Human Services Secretary, Kathleen Sebelius recommends that schools no longer need to close when a case of swine flu is confirmed in a school. Sick students should be kept at home for 7 days but 'the schools should feel comfortable about opening'

Links to daily updated H1N1 case maps:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/04/27/us/20090427-flu-update-graphic.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8021547.stm

(sources: Secretaria de Salud (Mexico), WHO, CDC and news sites)

MRC Centre at the Forefront:

The last 10 days have seen Centre and DIDE staff and students put in an amazing effort to help collate often sketchy data on the unfolding outbreak, undertaking vital early analyses, and work with key collaborators in the UK and around the world assisting them as they manage their response to the epidemic. I have been incredibly pround to be part of this effort - I can categorically say that no other University research group has had a larger impact on how this epidemic has been and continues to be investigated and managed around the world.

I thought it might therefore be useful to emphasise that (regardless of what the media may report), this pandemic has barely started, that there remain huge uncertainties about its potential impact (in terms of morbidity and mortality) and the time scale this will occur over. We will need to remain closely engaged with public health bodies around the world for weeks and months ahead, quite possibly to the end of the year - and this will include having staff located in Geneva and Atlanta.

A big thank you to everyone for their good nature and forebearance during this period!

Centre Folks in the Media

In the last 10 days, Centre researchers have engaged with the media to help raise public awareness and understanding of the outbreak:

Sky News - Dr. Christophe Fraser and Prof Azra Ghani
BBC TV- Prof. Azra Ghani
BBC Radio 4: Centre Director Neil Ferguson and Prof. Christl Donnelly

The links to these interviews are ephemoral, so not presented here, but I will add links to new press info as and when.

Swine Flu Outbreak

Members of the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling at Imperial College London, led by Centre Director Professor Neil Ferguson, are closely monitoring the current swine-flu outbreak and recognize the potential for a pandemic situation. At this time there are too many unknowns to make robust predictions about the trajectory of the outbreak and as such, Centre efforts are focused on modeling and planning for a wide range of possible scenarios. We are in consultation with global authorities to assist with the refinement of planning and updates in policy as more evidence becomes available.

Welcome!

Welcome the MRC Outbreak Centre Blog!

Follow our posts for the latest news about outbreaks and epidemics around the world.

A little about us:

It is the mission of the Centre to be an international resource and centre of excellence for research on the epidemiological analysis and modelling of novel infectious disease outbreaks.
SARS and H5N1 avian influenza have highlighted the need of the world to improve its readiness for new epidemics. The centre will build upon a world-leading research group in the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College to undertake applied collaborative work with national and international agencies in support of policy planning and response operations against emerging infectious disease threats.
Based at Imperial College London, the Centre also involves staff at the UK Health Protection Agency. Centre researchers are world leaders in epidemic modelling and have extensive experience of advising governments and international agencies on the control of a wide range of diseases, including influenza, SARS, polio, HIV, BSE and foot-and-mouth disease. The centre will build on this experience and provide the infrastructure to establish long-term relationships with public health bodies around the world.